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But U.S.-Chinese relations are in tatters these days, with little chance of mending any time soon, except perhaps on marginal issues such as trade deals. If the United States and China worked together-Washington pressuring and providing security guarantees to Ukraine, Beijing doing the same to Russia-there might be a chance of pulling this off. There is no higher power with the leverage to make this work. Many Crimeans regarded themselves as Russian, at least until recently when Russian troops occupied the peninsula in 2014, they did so without firing a shot.) (Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev handed Crimea to Ukraine as a gift in 1954, but the deed was symbolic, as the Soviet Union was the only viable political entity at the time. officials seriously doubt Putin would give up Crimea, which, among other things, holds the port of the Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet. Whatever happens on the battlefield in the next few months, U.S.

This would mean the return not only of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region but also of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. He is reportedly upbeat about the conversation-but that doesn’t necessarily mean peace is at hand.Īs he has in the past, Zelensky emphasized that any cease-fire must be preceded by Russia’s military withdrawal from all occupied Ukrainian territory and a restoration of the 1991 borders between the two countries. Zelensky has long wanted direct contact with Beijing, in hopes of breaking up Xi’s already dangling alliance with Moscow. If that happens, Putin’s position-military and political-could face rapid erosion, as could Xi’s by affiliation. He has no doubt read reports that Ukraine’s upcoming offensive- likely to get underway next month, as planeloads of new Western weapons, including tanks and other armored vehicles arrive-could recapture substantial swaths of territory.

He watched the Russian army’s recent offensive that failed to move the lines of battle. Notably, though he continues to give Russia lots of money and technical gear, he has not supplied any weapons for the war. The two leaders talked at the time of a “no-limits” partnership, but Xi has slapped on a lot of limits since. What’s going on, and why is it happening now? Xi hasn’t spelled out his reasoning publicly, but some plausible explanations can be inferred from recent events and context.įirst is the basic backdrop: Xi must realize that the alliance he struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022-less than a month before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine-was, on some level, a strategic error.

Charged by Emily Bazelon